Week Ahead - 11th November
This week is going to be tricky one as there is holiday on thursday. So in effect we should consider 3-day movement first. It seems there will be 2-way movement and it might do some range expansion. Last few days we are having range around 60-70 which does not give much trading opportunity for intra-day traders.
At end of last week we are at level where indicators on hourly time frame displaying near-to-oversold position. So we may get a leg up on Monday. But I believe that will be sold into. Dip after this will be opportunity to buy and position yourself for Wednesday trading. There is hope in market that IIP data -which will be released on Tuesday evening- will be very positive. This will prop up market on Wednesday opening. How do we will end up on that day is different story.
US market which has ended on high last friday. This may push up SPX for few more points but it is very difficult to take it much further. There is very little room for up move on SPX. I am saying this despite snap-back rally on friday. From indian market point of view a very strong US job report has increased posibility of taper in December. One must understand that Fed has said in May that they wish to start tapering in this calendar year subject to positive economic data. They have surprised in September by not starting tapering and I beleive they will again do the same by starting in December. But that will be very symbolic cut. They will test market. Posibility of this sceanario is not very high. But still it is not one which will be ignored by market especially by indian markets.
INR will be weak on monday morning as USD has got stronger due to strong economic data. This will be most important indicator for Nifty to find its direction. Any push above 63 will be worrying for market participants. I have a strong feeling that our market has turned down and it will post a swing low below 6079 most probably near 6020-30. And then it will move higher. Question is higher means how much higher.
This week is going to be tricky one as there is holiday on thursday. So in effect we should consider 3-day movement first. It seems there will be 2-way movement and it might do some range expansion. Last few days we are having range around 60-70 which does not give much trading opportunity for intra-day traders.
At end of last week we are at level where indicators on hourly time frame displaying near-to-oversold position. So we may get a leg up on Monday. But I believe that will be sold into. Dip after this will be opportunity to buy and position yourself for Wednesday trading. There is hope in market that IIP data -which will be released on Tuesday evening- will be very positive. This will prop up market on Wednesday opening. How do we will end up on that day is different story.
US market which has ended on high last friday. This may push up SPX for few more points but it is very difficult to take it much further. There is very little room for up move on SPX. I am saying this despite snap-back rally on friday. From indian market point of view a very strong US job report has increased posibility of taper in December. One must understand that Fed has said in May that they wish to start tapering in this calendar year subject to positive economic data. They have surprised in September by not starting tapering and I beleive they will again do the same by starting in December. But that will be very symbolic cut. They will test market. Posibility of this sceanario is not very high. But still it is not one which will be ignored by market especially by indian markets.
INR will be weak on monday morning as USD has got stronger due to strong economic data. This will be most important indicator for Nifty to find its direction. Any push above 63 will be worrying for market participants. I have a strong feeling that our market has turned down and it will post a swing low below 6079 most probably near 6020-30. And then it will move higher. Question is higher means how much higher.
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