Pivots for 31st December 2013
Monday, December 30, 2013
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Friday, December 13, 2013
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Monday, December 2, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Friday, November 22, 2013
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Monday, November 18, 2013
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Week Ahead - 11th November
This week is going to be tricky one as there is holiday on thursday. So in effect we should consider 3-day movement first. It seems there will be 2-way movement and it might do some range expansion. Last few days we are having range around 60-70 which does not give much trading opportunity for intra-day traders.
At end of last week we are at level where indicators on hourly time frame displaying near-to-oversold position. So we may get a leg up on Monday. But I believe that will be sold into. Dip after this will be opportunity to buy and position yourself for Wednesday trading. There is hope in market that IIP data -which will be released on Tuesday evening- will be very positive. This will prop up market on Wednesday opening. How do we will end up on that day is different story.
US market which has ended on high last friday. This may push up SPX for few more points but it is very difficult to take it much further. There is very little room for up move on SPX. I am saying this despite snap-back rally on friday. From indian market point of view a very strong US job report has increased posibility of taper in December. One must understand that Fed has said in May that they wish to start tapering in this calendar year subject to positive economic data. They have surprised in September by not starting tapering and I beleive they will again do the same by starting in December. But that will be very symbolic cut. They will test market. Posibility of this sceanario is not very high. But still it is not one which will be ignored by market especially by indian markets.
INR will be weak on monday morning as USD has got stronger due to strong economic data. This will be most important indicator for Nifty to find its direction. Any push above 63 will be worrying for market participants. I have a strong feeling that our market has turned down and it will post a swing low below 6079 most probably near 6020-30. And then it will move higher. Question is higher means how much higher.
This week is going to be tricky one as there is holiday on thursday. So in effect we should consider 3-day movement first. It seems there will be 2-way movement and it might do some range expansion. Last few days we are having range around 60-70 which does not give much trading opportunity for intra-day traders.
At end of last week we are at level where indicators on hourly time frame displaying near-to-oversold position. So we may get a leg up on Monday. But I believe that will be sold into. Dip after this will be opportunity to buy and position yourself for Wednesday trading. There is hope in market that IIP data -which will be released on Tuesday evening- will be very positive. This will prop up market on Wednesday opening. How do we will end up on that day is different story.
US market which has ended on high last friday. This may push up SPX for few more points but it is very difficult to take it much further. There is very little room for up move on SPX. I am saying this despite snap-back rally on friday. From indian market point of view a very strong US job report has increased posibility of taper in December. One must understand that Fed has said in May that they wish to start tapering in this calendar year subject to positive economic data. They have surprised in September by not starting tapering and I beleive they will again do the same by starting in December. But that will be very symbolic cut. They will test market. Posibility of this sceanario is not very high. But still it is not one which will be ignored by market especially by indian markets.
INR will be weak on monday morning as USD has got stronger due to strong economic data. This will be most important indicator for Nifty to find its direction. Any push above 63 will be worrying for market participants. I have a strong feeling that our market has turned down and it will post a swing low below 6079 most probably near 6020-30. And then it will move higher. Question is higher means how much higher.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Friday, November 1, 2013
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Week starting from 28th October
Coming week of 28th Oct 2013 is going to be very important. There are multiple sceanarios playing out in market around 3 major events. First is RBI meet on 29th. Market is expecting 25bps hike in repo rate. There may be 25bps cut in MSF alongwith it. Repo rate hike is already priced in by market. Question is whether with MSF cut or without cut. But MSF is not that important compare to hike in repo. If for some reason RBI does not hike rate at all then market will like that very much. Similalrly even after initial knee-jerk reaction market will absorb repo rate hike if it remains at 25 bps and eventually will go up. But if RBI gets aggressive on inflation front and hikes it 50bps then there will be collapse in market. Possibility of this is very thin. So my guess is that we will end up on positive side on RBI day.
Next in line is Fed meet. Fed's policy statement will not effect 31st trading much as that will be expiry day. But fed may surprise market by having very dowish commentary and giving some fuel to further QE increase. This has been a discussion among few analyst in US markets. As of now everybody in US is expecting that tapering is off the table till March. Fed may suggest that there are no near term indication of taper which may indicate till June 2014 end. This will be shot in the arm for bulls.
And last but very important our new series on 1st Nov on the eve of diwali which I am expecting to start with bang. Diwali can be bad only if RBI hikes repo by 50bps which is very unlikely.
Now how do I position myself for coming week. I am going to buy during Monday trading or Tuesday morning before policy. This will enable me to make some good money. I do not think Nifty will break 6100 on Monday. That will be first indication that this market is in strong hands. My concern is more on tuesday morning opening. I hope that Apple does not disappoint US markets which can give some headwinds on Tuesday morning for Nifty. If everything goes as per script I am hoping for expiry around 6300 in this series and all time high on Friday 1st November.
Coming week of 28th Oct 2013 is going to be very important. There are multiple sceanarios playing out in market around 3 major events. First is RBI meet on 29th. Market is expecting 25bps hike in repo rate. There may be 25bps cut in MSF alongwith it. Repo rate hike is already priced in by market. Question is whether with MSF cut or without cut. But MSF is not that important compare to hike in repo. If for some reason RBI does not hike rate at all then market will like that very much. Similalrly even after initial knee-jerk reaction market will absorb repo rate hike if it remains at 25 bps and eventually will go up. But if RBI gets aggressive on inflation front and hikes it 50bps then there will be collapse in market. Possibility of this is very thin. So my guess is that we will end up on positive side on RBI day.
Next in line is Fed meet. Fed's policy statement will not effect 31st trading much as that will be expiry day. But fed may surprise market by having very dowish commentary and giving some fuel to further QE increase. This has been a discussion among few analyst in US markets. As of now everybody in US is expecting that tapering is off the table till March. Fed may suggest that there are no near term indication of taper which may indicate till June 2014 end. This will be shot in the arm for bulls.
And last but very important our new series on 1st Nov on the eve of diwali which I am expecting to start with bang. Diwali can be bad only if RBI hikes repo by 50bps which is very unlikely.
Now how do I position myself for coming week. I am going to buy during Monday trading or Tuesday morning before policy. This will enable me to make some good money. I do not think Nifty will break 6100 on Monday. That will be first indication that this market is in strong hands. My concern is more on tuesday morning opening. I hope that Apple does not disappoint US markets which can give some headwinds on Tuesday morning for Nifty. If everything goes as per script I am hoping for expiry around 6300 in this series and all time high on Friday 1st November.
Friday, October 25, 2013
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Monday, October 21, 2013
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Friday, October 11, 2013
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Monday, October 7, 2013
Friday, October 4, 2013
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Monday, September 23, 2013
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
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